NHL Draft Career Files™
Jesperi Kotkaniemi: The Weight of Expectations and the Journey to Becoming an NHL Regular
When the Montreal Canadiens stepped to the podium with the third overall selection in the 2018 NHL Draft, they surprised much of the hockey world.
Many experts expected Montreal to draft Brady Tkachuk or Filip Zadina. Instead, General Manager Marc Bergevin selected an 18-year-old Finnish center named Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
The Canadiens believed they had found the franchise center they had been searching for since the departure of Saku Koivu.
The pressure began immediately.
Thrown Into the NHL
Unlike many third-overall picks, Kotkaniemi was not expected to spend years developing.
Montreal kept him on its NHL roster as an 18-year-old.
The decision showed tremendous confidence, but it also meant learning the world’s toughest hockey league while still physically maturing.
During his rookie season he recorded:
- 79 Games
- 11 Goals
- 23 Assists
- 34 Points
Those numbers represented a solid first season for a teenager playing one of hockey’s most demanding positions.
The future appeared bright.
Learning That Development Isn’t Linear
Many fans expected Kotkaniemi to become Montreal’s first-line center within a few seasons.
Instead, his development followed a different path.
His offensive production fluctuated.
There were stretches where he looked capable of dominating games, followed by periods where consistency became a challenge.
Playing center in the NHL demands much more than scoring.
Players must:
- win faceoffs
- defend elite centers
- support defensemen
- kill penalties
- drive offense
It often takes years before young centers fully develop.
The 2021 Stanley Cup Run
One of the defining moments of Kotkaniemi’s early career came during the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Canadiens entered the playoffs as underdogs.
Few believed they could make a deep run.
Instead, Montreal shocked the hockey world by advancing to the Stanley Cup Final.
Kotkaniemi elevated his game during the postseason.
His combination of size, puck protection and timely scoring helped Montreal eliminate Toronto, Winnipeg and Vegas before eventually losing to Tampa Bay.
For a brief period, it looked as though he was beginning to fulfill the enormous expectations placed upon him.
One of the NHL’s Most Famous Offer Sheets
The summer of 2021 dramatically changed Kotkaniemi’s career.
The Carolina Hurricanes signed him to a one-year offer sheet worth $6.1 million.
The move was widely viewed as retaliation after Montreal had signed Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet two years earlier.
Montreal declined to match.
Kotkaniemi officially became a member of the Hurricanes.
It became one of the NHL’s most talked-about player transactions of the decade.
A Fresh Start in Carolina
Carolina provided something Montreal could not.
Patience.
Rather than expecting Kotkaniemi to become the franchise’s number-one center immediately, the Hurricanes allowed him to grow within one of the NHL’s deepest lineups.
His responsibilities expanded gradually.
He became known for:
- responsible defensive play
- strong puck support
- physical play
- versatility
- penalty killing
- dependable two-way hockey
While he has not developed into the elite offensive star many envisioned on draft day, he has become a reliable NHL player capable of contributing in multiple situations.
Finding His Role
One lesson from Kotkaniemi’s career is that success in the NHL can look different than expected.
Many third-overall picks are judged only by points.
The Hurricanes judge him differently.
His value includes:
- defensive reliability
- matchup ability
- positional flexibility
- playoff experience
- hockey intelligence
- team-first approach
Those qualities often help teams win championships even when they don’t dominate the scoring race.
Career Snapshot (through the 2025–26 season)
- More than 400 NHL games
- Over 160 career points
- Stanley Cup Final appearance
- Long-term NHL contract
- Established NHL regular
- Key contributor on one of the league’s strongest organizations
BRAIN Evaluation™
Offensive Skill ★★★☆☆
Shows flashes of offensive creativity but has not consistently produced at the level expected of a third-overall selection.
Hockey IQ ★★★★☆
Reads the game well and understands positioning in all three zones.
Defensive Play ★★★★☆
One of the stronger defensive centers from the 2018 draft class.
Physical Game ★★★★☆
Uses his size effectively along the boards and in puck battles.
Leadership ★★★★☆
Respected teammate who has handled enormous expectations with professionalism.
Consistency ★★★☆☆
Has become a dependable player, though offensive consistency has been difficult to maintain.
Did Montreal Make the Right Pick?
This question continues to be debated.
Players selected after Kotkaniemi include:
- Brady Tkachuk
- Quinn Hughes
- Evan Bouchard
- Noah Dobson
Several have developed into elite NHL stars.
With the benefit of hindsight, Montreal likely would choose differently if the draft were held again.
That does not mean Kotkaniemi is a disappointment.
He has built a long NHL career—something very few drafted players ever achieve.
Career Success Evaluation
Draft Expectations: 8.5/10
As the third overall pick, Kotkaniemi entered the league with expectations of becoming a franchise first-line center and perennial All-Star.
Actual Career: 7.5/10
He has not become the offensive superstar many projected, but he has:
- Played hundreds of NHL games.
- Earned a long-term contract.
- Contributed to playoff success.
- Become a trusted two-way center on a championship-caliber team.
That represents a successful NHL career, even if it falls short of the lofty expectations attached to a top-three draft pick.
BRAIN Verdict™
⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ 4.0/5
Draft Value: Good
Career Success: Successful NHL Regular
Franchise Impact: Solid Contributor
Playoff Impact: Proven Performer
Long-Term Outlook: Kotkaniemi is still in his mid-20s and has time to elevate his offensive game further. Even if he never becomes a point-per-game player, he has established himself as a valuable NHL center whose versatility and reliability make him an important part of a winning organization.
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-picks-recap-299186680
https://www.nhl.com/player/jesperi-kotkaniemi
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kotkaje01.html
https://thehockeyresource.com/category/blog/10-years-of-draft-picks-what-did-they-achieve